The myth of the Derrick Rose keystone

In architecture the keystone is the wedge-shaped piece that holds the stones together. Without the keystone the entire arch collapses and is just a pile of rubble. Why the architecture lesson? Well maybe people try to make this argument about the 2011 Chicago Bulls regarding Derrick Rose.

The argument goes "Without Derrick Rose, the Chicago Bulls collapse and aren't near the team they are with him."

I hear this argument a ton from Bulls fans. I've lived in Chicago. Yes, I know a lot of Bulls fans. Unfortunately for those making the argument, the facts just don't bare out that particular claim. Let's look at some numbers. (taken from Queen City Hoops on 3/16/11)



Now this might be hard for some believe, but look at those numbers it's hard to see how the Bulls collapse without Derrick Rose as their PG. Sure they aren't a top seed in the East, but their net differential when he doesn't play is +1.8, which projects out to a 46-36 record. That's a .561 winning percentage, which would be good enough for the 6th seed in the East right now. Not exactly a ringing endorsement for the Bulls "collapsing."

Okay, well that's net differential. Let's look at a different data set. How about Wins Produced? Surely that metric will show Rose being the keystone to the Bulls. (data powered by NerdNumbers)



Okay so here we see that Rose has had a pretty good season. .182 WP48 means he's producing at a star level in the NBA (>.200 is star level; >.300 is superstar) (Yes, I realize he only has .182 and star is supposed to be .200, but that's within the margin of error.) He's also produced the most wins for the Bulls, but that's a little misleading since he's played twice as many minutes as Noah, who's the real wins producer on this team. Rose has produced 19.7% of this teams wins so far. If we project that out to an 82 game season that's 16 wins. That's pretty good. Okay, now let's project out the teams current win percentage of 72.7% to 82 games, which is 60 games. 60-16 = 44. So by the Wins Produced metric, the Bulls would be roughly 44-38. That's a winning percentage of 53.6%, which would be good enough, again, for the 6th seed in the East.

Now that's two different ways of looking at this. And wouldn't you know it both show Derrick Rose having about the same effect on the Bulls. Both say that they'd still be the 6th seed in the East this season with him. And both show that the Bulls wouldn't collapse without Derrick Rose on their team. That is all.

The Rose argument isn't as structurally sounds as this...

NBA MVP Series #2: What's value, and who gives it?

So in the last installment of the NBA MVP Series, we looked at what kind of production it took to be deemed worth of the MVP. We found 5 of the best players in the NBA.

PG: Chris Paul
SG: Dwyane Wade
SF: LeBron James
PF: Dirk Nowitzki
C: Dwight Howard

Most of these names are in the current MVP discussion. Wade probably the exception because he plays with James, who sucks up all the national media attention. Also Paul isn't discussed often because his team is only on pace to win 46 games so far, but it's hard to find a guy who's having a better season for a worse team.

There's one player who's definitely missing from this list whose name is all over the place nowadays: Derrick Rose. Derrick Rose is a very good PG in the NBA, but does he deserve to be the MVP?

The most important job of an NBA GM is to find players who can get the most value (points) from their assets (possessions). There's two sides to this, of course: Offense and defense. On offense a team wants to score the most points possible per possession, and on defense a team wants to prevent the most points possible per opposing possession. So finding players who can score and defend is always the priority. So it's with this mindset that we continue our journey and find out which top players yield this value for their teams. Are you ready?!

I like the enthusiasm!!

A good way to find out if a player is adding value to a team is to look at the offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency when the player is playing and when he is not. If a team plays as well without a player, then he must not be adding much value to the team. Offensive efficiency (OE) is defined as points scored per 100 possessions, while defensive efficiency (DE) is the points allowed per 100 possessions. Efficiency differential (ED) is OE-DE. With that, let's look at some fun little charts!

Click for google docs version


Click for google docs version


So there's some interesting information coming from these numbers. Firstly, top five players on this list would make a pretty awesome team. Secondly, who knew Paul Pierce was more important to the Celtics than either Rondo or Garnett. I was definitely not surprised to see Garnett so high on the list. Thirdly, LeBron James, regardless of the perception people have of him this season, is playing out of his mind, and is by far the most important player to that Heat team. Fourthly, what in the world is going on with Russell Westbrook?! The Thunder are almost a full 9 points better with him off the court. I'm not sure what to think about that.

And finally, as the first installment of this series showed, while Derrick Rose is a very good player, he is not the MVP, regardless of whether you view the MVP as the best player in the league or as which player is the most valuable to his team. Rose adds around 7 points per 100 possessions when he's on the court. This is a very good differential, one of the best in the league. But it isn't enough make him the NBA 2011 MVP.

One of these two guys should be....

(October 25, 2010 - Photo by Jim Rogash/Getty Images North America)

NBA MVP Series: What it takes to win

So the NBA trade deadline has recently passed, which can only mean one thing: serious MVP discussions. The talk of the NBA right now is one Derrick Rose. And why wouldn't he be? He's a young, flashy point guard, who plays for one of the best teams in the NBA. But does he deserve to be the MVP?

This will be my first point in a series a posts where I'm going to look at the top candidates and see who should be crown the 2011 NBA MVP. So sit down. Grab your favorite beverage, because this could take awhile.

Now the MVP means different things to different people, which is perfectly fine. I'm not really interested in having a debate about what it means to be the most valuable player. What I am interested in is seeing who has previously won the award and what can that tell us about who usually wins the award. Listed below are the winners of the past 26 years of MVP winners. Listed with them are several advanced statistics for the respective years each player won the award. All statistics are from the wonderful basketball-reference.com. Also, basketball-reference has a glossary to define any statistics you see used here.

Click here for the google docs version.


Now since the assist percentage for a PG is not comparable to that of a C, it quickly becomes apparent not all stats are comparable for all positions. So let's take this one step further and get averages for each position so we can get a more apples-apples comparison.

Click here for the google docs version.


Okay. Now that we have all that out of the way, let's combine all of this with the top 14 candidates for the 2011 NBA MVP. I chose some of the best players from the teams in the league who project to win over 50 games. Some very good players got left off for no particular reason other than I didn't feel like including them (This definitely doesn't deserve to be in any scientific journal). I left the 2011 players anonymous so that our emotions can't get the best of us. Some of them you may be able to figure out, but it's still more fun this way so public perception doesn't get the best of us.

Click here for the google docs version.


Take some time with it. Okay ready? The first thing I noticed when looking at this list is that 2011 is a bad year for great players. Judging just by PER itself unless something dramatic happens in the next 25 games or so, we're going to have a below average MVP, which is why the race is so wide open to begin with. There's just no one player who is putting up a monster year like the past two years with LeBron James.

Top MVP candidates

PG: #10 - PER, AST%, WS are all around where you'd want to be to win an MVP from the PG position, and his STL% is practically off the charts. Add to that a TS% that rivals most big men, and I'm not sure how you find a better PG in the league. The only important category where this player is left to be desired is eFG%, but nobody is perfect.

SG: #14 - This guy has a good PER, TS%, and WS. He's a great rebounding SG, better than Jordan, and has a AST% consistent with that of an MVP SG. While this player is the best SG the league has to offer at the moment, he just doesn't quite seem up to par to previous winners from the SG position (A lot of this has to do with how great a couple of Jordan's MVP seasons are, but there are seasons such as Allen Iverson in 2001, which balance it out).

SF: #8 - This position has it's work cut out for it since the only SFs to win the MVP in the past 26 years are LBJ and Larry Legend... that's a tough act to follow. This guy does his best though. He's got a slight lead on everyone in PER, puts up good TS%, a decent eFG%, he's having an okay year rebounding from the SF position (relative to other winners), his AST% is very good for an SF, and he has one of the best WSs in the league. Definitely one of the leading candidates.

PF: #9 - Honestly, I don't even want to put anyone up for this award from the PF position, but I'll go against my better judgment and do it anyway. This guy shoots lights out, but he doesn't belong anywhere near the MVP discussion. He's a terrible rebounder for his position, and doesn't get anywhere near as many assists as other winners from this position. This guy may be having the best season of any PF in the league, but all that means is it's been a down year for PFs.

C: #7 - It's a rough year for Centers in the NBA, as their numbers are dwindling, but this guy is still putting up a stellar year even as his brethren are disappearing. He's got one of the best PERs in the league. His TS%, eFG%, ORB%, DRB%, and TRB% are higher than any center's to win the award in the past 26 years and most are higher than any player to win the MVP over that time span. He has a terrific BLK%. The only real flaw in his game is AST%, which is abysmal. He definitely has a legit case for the MVP.

So there ya have it. The five players who, in my opinion, are having the best seasons at their respective positions. I'll tell you in my next post which number correspond to which player, some aren't very surprising, but till then which player in the chart do you have as the 2011 MVP? (NO CHEATING before answering!)


Now that you're all worked up about how wrong I am, I'll leave you with this calming photo...

Woosah...